Estimates of intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations updated

We set up a procedure for the short-term prediction of the number of daily taken ICU beds in each Italian region. This is motivated by one of the greatest challenges in the ongoing pandemic, namely the problem of medical equipment management. This, in turn, is essential to guarantee intensive care treatment to patients in need.

We show daily values and we will update them regularly. The actually observed data is broadcast by the “Protezione Civile”  [Italian civil defense organization, N.d.T] in the now regular press conference at 18:00 and are available at this link https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19

We successfully validated the aforementioned technique on data from 11-13/03/20 on all 20 Italian regions. Nevertheless, given the simplicity of this approach and the scarcity of available data, it is likely that some of the confidence intervals may not cover the true value. This may be even more true considering unpredictable inter-region patient transfers or clusters of risky behavior in the last few days.

(Previsione= Prediction, LimiteInferiore =95% Lower Limit, Limite Superiore = 99% upper Limit, Capienza = ICU availability)

A slightly more technical methodological note can be found at the following link

https://statgroup-19.blogspot.com/p/short-term-predictions-of-daily.html

We are available for any questions, clarifications, comments, and concerns. We are also     willing to share the predictions for the following 3/5 days to whom that may find it helpful.

(Translated by Gabriele Fabozzi)