Data and conspiracies

(picture taken from here)

One of the major problems that have surfaced in facing this epidemic is the fragmented management of the whole Italian health system. This regional fragmentation affects data management and collection in particular. Data that will be then used as the basis for models to understand and predict the phenomena which are affecting all of us, citizens and decision-makers alike. Indeed, the importance of good level information cannot be overstated: without it, good resource management is hard, and good decision-making is even harder.

For several years now health data in Italy is collected at a local level and is only later transmitted to central offices such as Istat [Italian National Institute of Statistics] and ISS [Italian National Institute of Health]. The latter two then proceed to check and clean the data before standardizing and coherently organizing it. This process is extremely important but also a lengthy one.

The shortcomings of this system are becoming increasingly exposed in this time of crisis, where near-real-time information is direly needed. It indeed appears that every region, province, and sometimes even municipality handle data and work according to “their own way”. The result is that the data which gets relayed to central offices and authorities is “extremely dirty”. Positive cases are a mixture of effects from the previous days, death counts are based on hard-to-obtain death certificates, swab test reports, and anything else the ISS task force can get their hands on. To mention just a few examples. Once again, the result is data that is extremely hard to read. Then there is the separate issue of obtaining data at an individual level, which would be extremely useful in monitoring and understanding the actual level of infections in the general population. Unfortunately, these are nowhere to be found.

The end result is the spread of theories amongst the public citing hampering, closed-door conspiracies and other misinformation. The truth is simply a broken system in dire need of reform.

(Translation by Gabriele Fabozzi)